
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ticker
2026-march-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
Volume
311.3K
24h volume
17.1K
1w volume
42.3K
Open interest
32.7K
Liquidity
16.5K
Liquidity CLOB
16.5K
Start
Feb 26, 2026
End
Apr 10, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 26, 2026
Event ID
232623
Slug
2026-march-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
Markets
4
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"id": "832",
"label": "Global Temp",
"slug": "global-temp",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-01-03 17:38:30.089+00",
"createdAt": "2024-01-03T17:38:30.099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.521179Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": true,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "hottest-month",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-26T22:43:24.711134Z",
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Preliminary data from monitoring agencies like NOAA and Copernicus indicate March 2026 global surface air temperature ranked fourth or lower on record, yielding market-implied odds of 98.5% for this outcome and reflecting trader consensus on moderated warmth amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Lingering La Niña through early 2026 suppressed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, reducing atmospheric heat release and global averages compared to El Niño-fueled records of March 2024 (warmest), 2023, and 2016. February 2026 placed fifth-warmest, setting a baseline continued into March despite regional anomalies like record U.S. heat. Final bulletins expected mid-April could revise rankings slightly via refined ocean data, but significant upward shifts to top-three contention appear unlikely given ENSO-neutral transition forecasts.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-05T14:34:36.239Z"
}
}