Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
Start: 2026-03-09T21:03:26.032636Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-march
Volume
396.3K
24h volume
274.8K
1w volume
370.9K
Open interest
Liquidity
81.9K
Liquidity CLOB
81.9K
Start
Mar 9, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 9, 2026
Event ID
257025
Slug
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-march
Markets
Tags
Geopolitics traffic Oil Hormoz close tanker Iran Strait of Hormuz
Raw event data
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  "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?",
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  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:46:57.420198Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors minimal ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz in late March, pricing 0-10 ships daily at 63% implied probability and 10-20 at 21%, amid surging Middle East tensions. Iran's unprecedented April 13 missile and drone barrage on Israel, followed by threats to blockade the vital oil chokepoint in retaliation for any counterstrikes, has amplified fears of disruptions similar to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Commercial shipping firms are rerouting or delaying voyages to avoid risks, despite no official closure; routine tanker flows of 20+ vessels daily have tapered. Traders weigh potential U.S. or Israeli responses against Iran's restraint signals, with final end-of-month transit averages set to resolve market outcomes soon.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-18T11:04:36.391Z"
  }
}
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
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