Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Name: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Start: 2026-03-24T17:08:16.962867Z
End: 2026-04-03T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Volume
356.3K
24h volume
21.3K
1w volume
356.3K
Open interest
19.2K
Liquidity
57.9K
Liquidity CLOB
57.9K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 3, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303579
Slug
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Markets
Tags
Oil close traffic Geopolitics Hormoz Strait of Hormuz tanker Iran Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Raw event data
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  "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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      "question": "Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98.3% implied probability for 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, reflecting sustained minimal traffic amid the ongoing US-Iran war that erupted in late February 2026. Daily transits have collapsed from a pre-conflict average of 100-140 vessels—carrying 20% of global oil—to 0-7 ships recently, driven by Iranian attacks on tankers, a de facto blockade with case-by-case vetting, skyrocketing war-risk premiums, and over 2,000 vessels stalled nearby. This skin-in-the-game positioning, backed by real capital, anticipates persistence into early April absent de-escalation. Realistic challenges include a sudden ceasefire, US-led military clearance, or diplomatic breakthrough, though no such signals have emerged in the past week.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-01T09:49:55.940Z"
  }
}
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
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