Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Name: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Start: 2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Featured

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Ticker

bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by

Volume

413.4K

24h volume

43.0K

1w volume

291.9K

Open interest

174.4K

Liquidity

107.1K

Liquidity CLOB

107.1K

Start

Mar 16, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 16, 2026

Event ID

276527

Slug

bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by

Markets

Tags

houthi traffic Oil Geopolitics Iran Strait of Hormuz shipping Politics cape of good hope Regional Spillover red sea Houthis

Raw event data

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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.660588Z",
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      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-16T16:00:06.528175Z",
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      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-28 17:17:34.313+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions, Houthi rebels have joined the conflict with explicit threats to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—carrying 4.8 million barrels per day of oil trade, or 5% of global consumption—prompting trader consensus on heightened supply risks following the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel and pledges for phased actions have depressed Red Sea transits by up to 60%, surging container freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums while oil futures price in $20/barrel upside per JP Morgan analysis. US troop deployments and potential coalition strikes loom as pivotal catalysts, with any blockade amplifying Middle East export constraints and volatility across energy benchmarks.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-01T01:34:56.875Z"
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}

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