Loading event…
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ticker
february-2026-temperature-increase-c
Volume
336.2K
24h volume
13.3K
1w volume
136.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
23.5K
Liquidity CLOB
23.5K
Start
Feb 2, 2026
End
Mar 10, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 2, 2026
Event ID
193611
Slug
february-2026-temperature-increase-c
Markets
6
Raw event data
{
"id": "193611",
"ticker": "february-2026-temperature-increase-c",
"slug": "february-2026-temperature-increase-c",
"title": "February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:03:31.334335Z",
"creationDate": "2026-02-02T22:03:31.334325Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 23498.05859,
"volume": 336192.498917,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:00.651085Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:42:02.195409Z",
"competitive": 0.9987764987889834,
"volume24hr": 13273.733405,
"volume1wk": 136788.71675599998,
"volume1mo": 326933.98792900005,
"volume1yr": 326933.98792900005,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 23498.05859,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1299160",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x0b60be80d058d74d8827102f0614f730fe403b0f892d2c8fd654d94f62d5894f",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt15c-and-1pt19c-in-february-2026-838",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "3964.8758",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:02:16.234982Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.465\", \"0.535\"]",
"volume": "70080.272833",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:03.870536Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:41:08.726108Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "1.15–1.19ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "3",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b203",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 70080.272833,
"liquidityNum": 3964.8758,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 2687.4739959999997,
"volume1wk": 27341.935347000002,
"volume1mo": 68321.57749999997,
"volume1yr": 68321.57749999997,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"90685255515998732958838670877853157175296839509648244439461221612950377013330\", \"110551242476984617542556882830523693288690028937358721244882411884820042485529\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 2687.4739959999997,
"volume1wkClob": 27341.935347000002,
"volume1moClob": 68321.57749999997,
"volume1yrClob": 68321.57749999997,
"volumeClob": 70080.272833,
"liquidityClob": 3964.8758,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0x1847ff6acc3a3a3ffdbf25d4bfb9c36e308074a7061ffa9b8d4085b49aff25cd",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:01:10Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9987764987889834,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69403",
"conditionId": "0x0b60be80d058d74d8827102f0614f730fe403b0f892d2c8fd654d94f62d5894f",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 3,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.02,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.15,
"lastTradePrice": 0.45,
"bestBid": 0.46,
"bestAsk": 0.47,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.748249Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1299158",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x03e97e4d5c56f87a4fe42483de5ca77bc835a0aa7b0e48f7254e94a648737cd9",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt05c-and-1pt09c-in-february-2026-988",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "6558.57195",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:02:04.261362Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0455\", \"0.9545\"]",
"volume": "31482.559573",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:02.750302Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:41:07.007117Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "1.05–1.09ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b201",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 31482.559573,
"liquidityNum": 6558.57195,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 569.0026529999999,
"volume1wk": 14792.753118,
"volume1mo": 29294.218429000015,
"volume1yr": 29294.218429000015,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"108286451556649998508155915563769318039649432426002303003689250771234154877897\", \"44651234374326292732132798198773139789365522604948438030315814871540092454599\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 569.0026529999999,
"volume1wkClob": 14792.753118,
"volume1moClob": 29294.218429000015,
"volume1yrClob": 29294.218429000015,
"volumeClob": 31482.559573,
"liquidityClob": 6558.57195,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0x37fd4e61141ef7b842b503ce96c798adbb0c2505dcead9b4a7066fe65d32075d",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:00:58Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8287955052762158,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69399",
"conditionId": "0x03e97e4d5c56f87a4fe42483de5ca77bc835a0aa7b0e48f7254e94a648737cd9",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 1,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0055,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.004,
"lastTradePrice": 0.045,
"bestBid": 0.045,
"bestAsk": 0.046,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.745436Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1299159",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x7d4e693277c1d7990a5227146ee70f56750c73be6f9d129e8558be936848dc85",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt10c-and-1pt14c-in-february-2026-151",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2889.14301",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:02:10.188165Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.1365\", \"0.8635\"]",
"volume": "40591.152694",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:03.331329Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:40:58.3178Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "1.10–1.14ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b202",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 40591.152694,
"liquidityNum": 2889.14301,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 225.052935,
"volume1wk": 21191.205017999993,
"volume1mo": 40239.62261799998,
"volume1yr": 40239.62261799998,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"51218100387425424452628677799819235464957104396483377797919053219097346679000\", \"93710593357829232738103735646560042463454625907107546796986073622829350292153\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 225.052935,
"volume1wkClob": 21191.205017999993,
"volume1moClob": 40239.62261799998,
"volume1yrClob": 40239.62261799998,
"volumeClob": 40591.152694,
"liquidityClob": 2889.14301,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0x0dbe2c93781b7ca095d3d5e8205352280c6af99be232ab93a33e0e512e9da0f1",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:01:04Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8832890327079721,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69402",
"conditionId": "0x7d4e693277c1d7990a5227146ee70f56750c73be6f9d129e8558be936848dc85",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 1,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.037,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.01,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.0235,
"lastTradePrice": 0.158,
"bestBid": 0.118,
"bestAsk": 0.155,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.746912Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1299157",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x16d6a0389690cd0bc70000517b67e68441d64870227de839f2d6450ac867523b",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-less-than-1pt05c-in-february-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2117.03114",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:01:54.935309Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.052\", \"0.948\"]",
"volume": "26558.267101",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:02.150294Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:41:03.943344Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "<1.05ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 26558.267101,
"liquidityNum": 2117.03114,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 381.18005,
"volume1wk": 10055.648173999996,
"volume1mo": 26330.033454000004,
"volume1yr": 26330.033454000004,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"29251550930871006702607331021483438258094681395670268410214283850967745978746\", \"28858084704450741107793956633104655353809874761153503499281784357453015341310\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 381.18005,
"volume1wkClob": 10055.648173999996,
"volume1moClob": 26330.033454000004,
"volume1yrClob": 26330.033454000004,
"volumeClob": 26558.267101,
"liquidityClob": 2117.03114,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0xe28efa2d2490f6edd905997b5f5719b23e45ed4e90af0a497dccbbdec1064e1f",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:00:50Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8328447310910932,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.066,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.032,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.002,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.038,
"lastTradePrice": 0.017,
"bestBid": 0.019,
"bestAsk": 0.085,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.743339Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1299161",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0xd251c76b2cd29cf50c3cd13e44027d8d5cf2eec1f47e64b1ca34d39912cea238",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-between-1pt20c-and-1pt24c-in-february-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2877.9906",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:02:22.327244Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.285\", \"0.715\"]",
"volume": "70864.118028",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:04.587561Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:41:44.167536Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "1.20–1.24ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "4",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b204",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 70864.118028,
"liquidityNum": 2877.9906,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 3946.186405,
"volume1wk": 28066.159595999994,
"volume1mo": 70220.45528100005,
"volume1yr": 70220.45528100005,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"7744123745807190737156002000404630116411776419261168492763244158420413358231\", \"27745996852621454433993883223876181483513279909767048246985166615434113093386\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 3946.186405,
"volume1wkClob": 28066.159595999994,
"volume1moClob": 70220.45528100005,
"volume1yrClob": 70220.45528100005,
"volumeClob": 70864.118028,
"liquidityClob": 2877.9906,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0xc517723fa5c69d625330158e65b5aa5bceab5eec55760c3cfadfa5d54f3ef9b3",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:01:16Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9558173433056943,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69400",
"conditionId": "0xd251c76b2cd29cf50c3cd13e44027d8d5cf2eec1f47e64b1ca34d39912cea238",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.03,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.03,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.02,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.015,
"lastTradePrice": 0.28,
"bestBid": 0.27,
"bestAsk": 0.3,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.749419Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1299162",
"question": "Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x3536d7d6b2a69f9eed544bf089619692dbd8fa40f53bd96c78410be7c6ded24e",
"slug": "will-global-temperature-increase-by-more-than-1pt24c-in-february-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "5090.44609",
"startDate": "2026-02-02T22:02:28.120145Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/february-2025-temperature-increase-c-fr_fUwG_Bhn4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released.\n\nAn anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled \"GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius\" under the column \"Feb\" in the row \"2026\" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).\n\nIf NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.\nIf no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0225\", \"0.9775\"]",
"volume": "96616.128688",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T15:14:05.149771Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:41:05.119065Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": ">1.24ºC",
"groupItemThreshold": "5",
"questionID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b205",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 96616.128688,
"liquidityNum": 5090.44609,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 5464.837366000001,
"volume1wk": 35341.01550299999,
"volume1mo": 92528.08064700001,
"volume1yr": 92528.08064700001,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"102132811593096316009386818619352797470494478344876181150614571274410222841288\", \"77304692707834360977350395236244260180242109812631537487309572037253984376929\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 5464.837366000001,
"volume1wkClob": 35341.01550299999,
"volume1moClob": 92528.08064700001,
"volume1yrClob": 92528.08064700001,
"volumeClob": 96616.128688,
"liquidityClob": 5090.44609,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": true,
"negRiskMarketID": "0xdd443a2c03279beaa58005bc63fea5fbe78a1cc5771ac5bfa7934ae02945b200",
"negRiskRequestID": "0x9de7d307043a5dd874c02640004a795bc54953a6dd19a27646aafeca0a453e19",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-02T22:01:22Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8143281029717886,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "69404",
"conditionId": "0x3536d7d6b2a69f9eed544bf089619692dbd8fa40f53bd96c78410be7c6ded24e",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0085,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.2375,
"lastTradePrice": 0.022,
"bestBid": 0.022,
"bestAsk": 0.023,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:59:39.750741Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10026",
"ticker": "temperature-increase",
"slug": "temperature-increase",
"title": "Temperature Increase",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "https://services.meteored.com/img/article/the-heat-is-rising-with-climate-change-but-a-new-study-says-the-heat-index-is-rising-much-faster-1711300928899_1280.jpeg",
"icon": "https://services.meteored.com/img/article/the-heat-is-rising-with-climate-change-but-a-new-study-says-the-heat-index-is-rising-much-faster-1711300928899_1280.jpeg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-02-01T00:21:29.776168Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-20T13:42:11.047744Z",
"volume24hr": 13273.733405,
"volume": 336192.498917,
"liquidity": 23498.05859,
"commentCount": 729,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "103037",
"label": "Climate & Science",
"slug": "climate-science",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-12-30T23:31:52.33537Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:15:10.391999Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "74",
"label": "Science",
"slug": "science",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:20.623+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:20.826Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:15:20.36977Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "84",
"label": "Weather",
"slug": "weather",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:17:34.81+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:17:34.814Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:15:40.452105Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": true,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "temperature-increase",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-02T21:58:29.666121Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?Vol 70.1KLiq 4.0KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Vol 70.9KLiq 2.9KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?Vol 40.6KLiq 2.9KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?Vol 26.6KLiq 2.1KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?Vol 31.5KLiq 6.6KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?Vol 96.6KLiq 5.1KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book