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Fed Decision in July?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ticker
fed-decision-in-july
Volume
354.8K
24h volume
300.2K
1w volume
354.8K
Open interest
16.0K
Liquidity
259.7K
Liquidity CLOB
259.7K
Start
Mar 20, 2026
End
Jul 29, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Event ID
287395
Slug
fed-decision-in-july-181
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no change in the Fed's July 30-31 target rate, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgent need for easing amid sticky inflation. June CPI fell 0.1% monthly with core at 3.3% yearly—cooler than expected—but robust nonfarm payrolls (206K jobs added) and steady 4.1% unemployment underscore labor market strength, aligning with Powell's data-dependent stance in recent testimony. A 25 bps cut at 16% reflects hopes for preemptive action if upcoming July CPI softens further, while rate hikes remain marginal (<5%) absent overheating. Hold odds surged post-NFP from mid-60s, as traders weigh September cut odds exceeding 70% on CME FedWatch.",
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}- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Vol 14.5KLiq 23.0KEnd Jul 29, 2026OpenOrder book
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