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Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ticker
fed-decisions-jan-apr
Volume
486.0K
24h volume
263.1K
1w volume
360.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
152.7K
Liquidity CLOB
152.7K
Start
Dec 16, 2025
End
Apr 29, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 16, 2025
Event ID
106928
Slug
fed-decisions-jan-apr
Markets
9
Raw event data
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{
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"context_description": "Robust U.S. economic data, including sticky inflation above the Fed's 2% target and a resilient labor market, drives the 93% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across January, March, and April FOMC meetings on Polymarket. November's 227,000 nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, while December CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, reinforcing trader consensus that the federal funds rate holds steady amid cooling disinflation momentum. The FOMC's latest dot plot projects just two 2025 cuts starting mid-year, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities under 5% for pre-June easing. This positioning could falter on hotter-than-expected inflation surprises, a sharp jobs downturn below 100,000, or equity market turmoil prompting emergency cuts.",
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}
}- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Vol 32.1KLiq 57.7KEnd Apr 29, 2026OpenOrder book
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- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Vol 22.1KLiq —End Apr 29, 2026Closed
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Vol 8.6KLiq —End Apr 29, 2026Closed
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Vol 6.5KLiq —End Apr 29, 2026Closed
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Vol 2.8KLiq —End Apr 29, 2026Closed