
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of October 31, 2025. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-31
Volume
246.2K
24h volume
39.2K
1w volume
73.7K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
10.5K
Liquidity CLOB
10.5K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
79220
Slug
hezbollah-strike-on-israel-by-march-31
Markets
1
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