
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ticker
highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026
Volume
356.6K
24h volume
230.8K
1w volume
356.6K
Open interest
31.9K
Liquidity
1.7K
Liquidity CLOB
1.7K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Mar 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Resolution source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN
Event ID
302805
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026
Markets
11
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"id": "302805",
"ticker": "highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026",
"title": "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?",
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"creationDate": "2026-03-24T10:32:52.425123Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
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"openInterest": 31852.075077,
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"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1701822",
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 28?",
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{
"id": "1701823",
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 28?",
"conditionId": "0x3564724d38468cca677ca993f80ce056bef6cfc134525027194352d311eed144",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026-14c",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN",
"endDate": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-03-24T10:29:17.513235Z",
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"description": "This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.\n\nTo toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.\n\nThis market can not resolve to \"Yes\" until all data for this date has been finalized.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nAny revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "16441.754545000007",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T10:00:56.061718Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-27T17:36:01.637173Z",
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{
"id": "1701824",
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 28?",
"conditionId": "0xa22e5da9119e0711b994d5317dbf2eaf5feba333c6cd392b379cb2a59b02181f",
"slug": "highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-march-28-2026-15c",
"resolutionSource": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN",
"endDate": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-03-24T10:29:25.62326Z",
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{
"id": "1701825",
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 28?",
"conditionId": "0x8e7107325e1e6bb11b3d9f3df14d5ca67f460c05154cfb3bb8f89b567e09a0f6",
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"resolutionSource": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN",
"endDate": "2026-03-28T12:00:00Z",
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{
"id": "1701826",
"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 28?",
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{
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"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 28?",
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{
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"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 28?",
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{
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"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 28?",
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{
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"question": "Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28?",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Wellington at 40.5% implied probability, driven by the latest MetService forecasts showing a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over New Zealand's North Island, with light southerly winds and partial cloud cover capping daytime heating. Recent observations confirm mild autumn conditions, with highs of 19–20°C over the past week aligning with seasonal norms around 20.5°C, while ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF converge on 20–22°C peaks amid low humidity and minimal convective activity. Lower odds for 23°C or higher (7.6%) reflect limited intensification potential from cooler sea surface temperatures. Updated hourly forecasts and real-time monitoring from NIWA will refine these odds as March 28 approaches, highlighting inherent model uncertainty in coastal microclimates.",
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