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How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ticker
how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026
Volume
312.6K
24h volume
597
1w volume
163.3K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
20.4K
Liquidity CLOB
20.4K
Start
Jan 2, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 2, 2026
Event ID
138976
Slug
how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the peak US unemployment rate in 2026 at around 4.5-5%, reflecting 62% odds for 4-5% versus 25% for under 4%, amid cooling labor market signals. The November BLS report showed unemployment steady at 4.2% with payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating estimates but masking rising part-time employment and downward revisions. Fed projections from the September SEP forecast 4.3% by end-2025, converging to a 4.1% long-run neutral rate, yet traders weigh recession risks from prior tight policy against 75bps of 2024 rate cuts. Key catalysts ahead include the December 18 FOMC meeting and January 10 jobs report, which could shift implied probabilities if job growth falters below 150,000 monthly.",
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