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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ticker
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Volume
6.8M
24h volume
98.5K
1w volume
1.1M
Open interest
0
Liquidity
834.5K
Liquidity CLOB
834.5K
Start
Sep 29, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 29, 2025
Event ID
51456
Slug
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Markets
13
Raw event data
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