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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ticker
how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
Volume
368.4K
24h volume
5.2K
1w volume
27.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
14.0K
Liquidity CLOB
14.0K
Start
Jan 2, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 2, 2026
Event ID
135338
Slug
how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
Markets
6
Raw event data
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}- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Vol 178.4KLiq 3.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 155.4KLiq 2.6KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 12.9KLiq 2.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 4.6KLiq 2.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 9.5KLiq 1.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 7.7KLiq 2.5KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book