How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)

Name: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)
Start: 2026-03-09T20:45:38.908317Z
End: 2026-03-16T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-10-16
Volume
295.9K
24h volume
60.5K
1w volume
295.9K
Open interest
Liquidity
44.8K
Liquidity CLOB
44.8K
Start
Mar 9, 2026
End
Mar 16, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 9, 2026
Event ID
256927
Slug
how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-10-16
Markets
Tags
Geopolitics Iran ship Hormoz Oil close tanker Rewards 200, 3.5, 50 Strait of Hormuz
Raw event data
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  "title": "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)",
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    {
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      "question": "Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?",
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      "question": "Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?",
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    {
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      "question": "Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?",
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    {
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      "question": "Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?",
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      "endDate": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
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      "active": true,
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      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:42:21Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8079787905567479,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "103972",
          "conditionId": "0x54e38e5dd8d631184d91b39c2b4b757fce025425d91f985b37b62ece2d6bdadd",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 1,
          "startDate": "2026-03-17",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.009,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.009,
      "bestBid": 0.008,
      "bestAsk": 0.017,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:40:23.186159Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1541307",
      "question": "Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?",
      "conditionId": "0x798e2f7932b4e46b328db3ab9b2858585892db71789e081eefbe9245482b461c",
      "slug": "will-45-or-more-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-10-16",
      "endDate": "2026-03-16T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "6739.63377",
      "startDate": "2026-03-09T20:43:50.037472Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0085\", \"0.9915\"]",
      "volume": "59568.137773999944",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T18:45:17.896916Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-17T01:45:08.823569Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "45+",
      "groupItemThreshold": "8",
      "questionID": "0xa4af47a6a55261d0322f8760a3aab051b820e4f09b88e96ed6da52cd4ddb7908",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 59568.137773999944,
      "liquidityNum": 6739.63377,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-16",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-09",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 12775.328100999997,
      "volume1wk": 59528.65015299999,
      "volume1mo": 59568.13777399999,
      "volume1yr": 59568.13777399999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"91710293920560791169453826028954079655298543466156757431541948233366128849023\", \"91594418653573881001813472669981240821859708737925454931973550611459213552454\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 12775.328100999997,
      "volume1wkClob": 59528.65015299999,
      "volume1moClob": 59568.13777399999,
      "volume1yrClob": 59568.13777399999,
      "volumeClob": 59568.137773999944,
      "liquidityClob": 6739.63377,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": true,
      "negRiskMarketID": "0xa4af47a6a55261d0322f8760a3aab051b820e4f09b88e96ed6da52cd4ddb7900",
      "negRiskRequestID": "0x1ac58ca1b9399c25082f9ddd2b029cd18790b1f92897b7c087ddc3fbb3d332cf",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:42:27Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8054303726585385,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.011,
      "bestBid": 0.008,
      "bestAsk": 0.009,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:40:23.187571Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11350",
      "ticker": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
      "slug": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
      "title": "ships transit the Strait of Hormuz",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "weekly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:01:40.010409Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-17T01:43:48.589359Z",
      "volume24hr": 60511.190233999994,
      "volume": 295928.2609059999,
      "liquidity": 49007.63915,
      "commentCount": 24,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103208",
      "label": "ship",
      "slug": "ship",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-20T21:51:32.312388Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.768853Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104128",
      "label": "Hormoz",
      "slug": "hormoz",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T16:36:09.942149Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:42.694814Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "309",
      "label": "Oil",
      "slug": "oil",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:24:22.413244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104129",
      "label": "close",
      "slug": "close",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T16:36:09.949015Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:42.628312Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104134",
      "label": "tanker",
      "slug": "tanker",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T18:45:12.231348Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.360723Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103151",
      "label": "Rewards 200, 3.5, 50",
      "slug": "rewards-200-3pt5-50",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-01-15T18:06:54.161349Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.42705Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "262",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-13T23:00:06.482438Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": true,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "estimateValue": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:38:57.078915Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 25-29 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 10-16, driven by steady oil tanker volumes reflecting OPEC+ production cuts and stable Persian Gulf exports, with historical weekly averages around 26-30 large crude carriers southbound. The 30-34 range trails closely amid expectations of minor upticks from Iraq and UAE loadings, while 20-24 lags due to Saudi Arabia's ongoing voluntary reductions. Recent EIA data for the prior week showed 17.2 million barrels per day, implying about 3.5-4 tankers daily; no incidents reported through March 13 maintain normal maritime traffic, though Iran-U.S. naval presence adds monitoring but no disruptions, keeping probabilities anchored to recent tracking from services like TankerTrackers.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-16T19:24:26.170Z"
  }
}
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