How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Name: How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
Start: 2026-03-17T01:30:49.040535Z
End: 2026-03-23T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-17-23
Volume
327.8K
24h volume
40.5K
1w volume
217.7K
Open interest
39.2K
Liquidity
42.8K
Liquidity CLOB
42.8K
Start
Mar 17, 2026
End
Mar 23, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 17, 2026
Event ID
277885
Slug
how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-17-23
Markets
Tags
Geopolitics Iran ship close tanker Oil Hormoz Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Strait of Hormuz
Raw event data
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  "title": "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)",
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      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
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      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.645281Z",
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    {
      "id": "1618570",
      "question": "Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?",
      "conditionId": "0x4bb5a78086ef09e6945ff7b96e87e7d79f306165952bf4744754fab7dfb823bf",
      "slug": "will-25-29-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-17-23",
      "endDate": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "3510.52969",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T01:30:12.83499Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
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      "volume": "20389.985183000004",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
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      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:04:23.974309Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-26T10:18:20.718545Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "25-29",
      "groupItemThreshold": "4",
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      "orderMinSize": 5,
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      "endDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 4178.89309,
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      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": true,
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      "ready": false,
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      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
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      "automaticallyActive": true,
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      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.647144Z",
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      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
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    {
      "id": "1618571",
      "question": "Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?",
      "conditionId": "0x22f1959ce82daef1af8fe36b23dafe5c9e50b75197c163f83aedfde74d365c91",
      "slug": "will-30-34-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-17-23",
      "endDate": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "4362.87081",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T01:30:13.089343Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
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      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
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      "groupItemThreshold": "5",
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      "endDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
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      "negRiskMarketID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c400",
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      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:28:51Z",
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      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
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      "automaticallyActive": true,
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      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.648871Z",
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      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
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    {
      "id": "1618572",
      "question": "Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?",
      "conditionId": "0x92011d1dacfc4de2735cd3edfbba256d4288dead4710e29ef6df443fe2905dbc",
      "slug": "will-35-39-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-17-23",
      "endDate": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "5093.59767",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T01:30:16.99704Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]",
      "volume": "25573.03666999998",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
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      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:04:25.648274Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-26T10:18:18.743283Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "35-39",
      "groupItemThreshold": "6",
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      "liquidityNum": 5093.59767,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 2847.6579979999997,
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      "customLiveness": 0,
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      "negRisk": true,
      "negRiskMarketID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c400",
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      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:28:55Z",
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      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
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      "automaticallyActive": true,
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      "showGmpSeries": false,
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      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
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      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.650739Z",
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      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
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    {
      "id": "1618573",
      "question": "Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?",
      "conditionId": "0x9f0ec305a238c9f9bab4d755a78067934ce3feea00ededd058efb28edd7e4b34",
      "slug": "will-40-44-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-17-23",
      "endDate": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "5665.55723",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T01:30:21.085125Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
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      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]",
      "volume": "36741.405582",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:04:26.377087Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-26T10:18:04.509859Z",
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      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "40-44",
      "groupItemThreshold": "7",
      "questionID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c407",
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      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
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      "volumeNum": 36741.405582,
      "liquidityNum": 5665.55723,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 3731.514832,
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      "customLiveness": 0,
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      "negRisk": true,
      "negRiskMarketID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c400",
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      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:28:59Z",
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      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.652428Z",
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    {
      "id": "1618574",
      "question": "Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?",
      "conditionId": "0x5c4e41b63d9026d085966fdaf1babd8548f56f0098271479f70831b60fd7fac5",
      "slug": "will-45-or-more-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-between-march-17-23",
      "endDate": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "2913.14751",
      "startDate": "2026-03-17T01:30:26.941415Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]",
      "volume": "93046.54622700004",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:04:27.311753Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-26T10:17:57.628705Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "45+",
      "groupItemThreshold": "8",
      "questionID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c408",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 93046.54622700004,
      "liquidityNum": 2913.14751,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-23",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 8112.185499000001,
      "volume1wk": 58762.424264999994,
      "volume1mo": 93046.54622699993,
      "volume1yr": 93046.54622699993,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"6545844954459879874428376392520474226276756317026136692235627568124642406443\", \"15642296599331001207793551597195652841216640178452751603284826620632682571654\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 8112.185499000001,
      "volume1wkClob": 58762.424264999994,
      "volume1moClob": 93046.54622699993,
      "volume1yrClob": 93046.54622699993,
      "volumeClob": 93046.54622700004,
      "liquidityClob": 2913.14751,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": true,
      "negRiskMarketID": "0x4b9bdf65f2181d6a17c99f0219c6615960bdde5030e5d1edb1663640ef51c400",
      "negRiskRequestID": "0xa57f2d4915b0a515da323b9901d149679d9ba8e38ae371654285c54889af42e3",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:29:05Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8015991903848178,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.002,
      "bestBid": 0.002,
      "bestAsk": 0.003,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T01:02:08.654319Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11350",
      "ticker": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
      "slug": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
      "title": "ships transit the Strait of Hormuz",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "weekly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-17T00:01:40.010409Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-26T10:18:49.200384Z",
      "volume24hr": 40542.965762,
      "volume": 327826.41418799997,
      "liquidity": 42830.16808,
      "commentCount": 115,
      "requiresTranslation": false
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  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103208",
      "label": "ship",
      "slug": "ship",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-20T21:51:32.312388Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.768853Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104129",
      "label": "close",
      "slug": "close",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T16:36:09.949015Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:42.628312Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104134",
      "label": "tanker",
      "slug": "tanker",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T18:45:12.231348Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.360723Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "309",
      "label": "Oil",
      "slug": "oil",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:24:22.413244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104128",
      "label": "Hormoz",
      "slug": "hormoz",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T16:36:09.942149Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:42.694814Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103151",
      "label": "Rewards 200, 4.5, 50",
      "slug": "rewards-200-4pt5-50",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-01-15T18:06:54.161349Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-17T17:00:01.656911Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "262",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-13T23:00:06.482438Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": true,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz",
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-17T00:16:50.33776Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (70.7%), reflecting recent weekly averages of 16-18 large crude oil tankers amid sustained OPEC+ production cuts that have curbed Gulf exports since early 2024. The prior week (March 10-16) recorded 17 transits per Kpler tracking data, down from 20-24 typical pre-cuts levels due to Saudi Arabia and UAE output reductions. Regional tensions, including U.S. Navy escort operations against Houthi threats in the Red Sea and Iran's shadow fleet sanctions, have not disrupted Hormuz flows but contribute to caution, positioning 20-24 (27.2%) as a secondary outcome if export quotas ease. No major diplomatic or military escalations reported in the past 48 hours alter this steady pattern.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-03-26T10:05:57.413Z"
  }
}
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