
Prediction market · Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Ticker
hungary-parliamentary-election-popular-vote-winner
Volume
338.0K
24h volume
39.9K
1w volume
189.6K
Open interest
163.0K
Liquidity
83.7K
Liquidity CLOB
83.7K
Start
Mar 5, 2026
End
Apr 12, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 5, 2026
Event ID
246787
Slug
hungary-parliamentary-election-popular-vote-winner
Markets
3
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"context_description": "With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus prices Tisza at 79.5% to win the popular vote, reflecting recent polls from independent firms like Medián and 21 Kutatkozpont showing the opposition party leading Fidesz–KDNP by 16–23 points among decided and likely voters. This widening margin, up from narrower gaps in February and March, stems from Péter Magyar's Tisza consolidating anti-incumbent sentiment after 16 years of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz rule, amid low trust in elections and politics as the top public concern per Gallup. Fidesz retains rural strongholds under the mixed proportional and single-member district system, but national polling trends favor Tisza decisively; late turnout surges or campaign shifts could narrow the gap before polls close.",
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