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Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
iran-military-action-against-by-april-30
Volume
342.4K
24h volume
87.8K
1w volume
184.6K
Open interest
120.2K
Liquidity
287.3K
Liquidity CLOB
287.3K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303893
Slug
iran-military-action-against-by-april-30
Markets
28
Tags
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Amid the sixth week of open conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel, Iranian ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munitions struck near Israel's Kirya military headquarters on April 4, following US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran's Mahshahr petrochemical zone that killed five and wounded 170. Iranian officials threatened to unleash \"gates of hell\" on US and Israeli infrastructure if attacks continue, underscoring escalation risks. While Tehran targeted Gulf states like Bahrain with Khorramshahr-4 missiles in early March—citing US base usage—recent barrages have focused on Israel. Traders assess probabilities of additional Iranian drone, missile, or airstrikes impacting listed countries' territory or embassies by April 30, amid degraded Iranian missile stocks and potential Gulf involvement.",
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}- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Vol 41.6KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
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