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Iran military action against Israel on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
iran-military-action-against-israel-on
Volume
401.9K
24h volume
176.7K
1w volume
402.0K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
75.3K
Liquidity CLOB
75.3K
Start
Mar 17, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 17, 2026
Event ID
279992
Slug
iran-military-action-against-israel-on
Markets
14
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, following Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, have prompted mutual signals of restraint, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for additional direct Iranian military action in the near term. Iran's Supreme Leader stated the matter is \"closed\" absent further provocation, while Israel prioritizes operations against Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. U.S. diplomatic pressure and oil market stability further dampen escalation risks. Key watches include any Israeli reprisals or proxy flare-ups, alongside U.S. election outcomes that could shift regional dynamics.",
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