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Iran Strike on Israel by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
iran-strike-on-israel-by
Volume
1.4M
24h volume
31.4K
1w volume
650.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
35.3K
Liquidity CLOB
35.3K
Start
Jan 12, 2026
End
Feb 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 12, 2026
Event ID
160183
Slug
iran-strike-on-israel-by
Markets
5
Raw event data
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}- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?Vol 2.2KLiq 3.8KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Vol 2.3KLiq 3.1KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Vol 431.5KLiq 28.4KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?Vol 581.9KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?Vol 364.2KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed