
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory durring the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ticker
israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by
Volume
297.8K
24h volume
9.0K
1w volume
124.1K
Open interest
130.0K
Liquidity
45.4K
Liquidity CLOB
45.4K
Start
Mar 17, 2026
End
May 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 17, 2026
Event ID
279977
Slug
israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Amid escalating airstrikes and missile exchanges in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, no official confirmation has emerged from the Israeli government or IDF of a ground operation inside Iran, despite early March reports of Mossad special forces activity cited by Al Arabiya. Recent Israeli media statements affirm Jerusalem will not commit troops to any potential US ground raids, prioritizing instead air campaigns targeting Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and energy infrastructure, which caused Tehran power outages last week. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and US bases, while President Trump extended deadlines for Strait of Hormuz access and delayed energy strikes, signaling diplomatic overtures. Traders weigh logistical barriers to Israeli boots-on-the-ground against possible limited US actions, with upcoming talks and escalation signals key risks.",
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