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Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on
Volume
324.4K
24h volume
92.2K
1w volume
279.1K
Open interest
57.5K
Liquidity
90.7K
Liquidity CLOB
90.7K
Start
Mar 18, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 18, 2026
Event ID
281087
Slug
israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on
Markets
14
Raw event data
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}- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 21, 2026?Vol 45.3KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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