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Israel military action on Gaza on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-in-gaza-on
Volume
391.8K
24h volume
389.8K
1w volume
391.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
47.6K
Liquidity CLOB
47.6K
Start
Mar 18, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 18, 2026
Event ID
281072
Slug
israel-military-action-in-gaza-on
Markets
14
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Israeli military operations in Gaza remain a focal point for traders, with sentiment driven by stalled ceasefire talks and Israel's stated intent to resume intensified actions against Hamas targets. Recent IDF strikes killed over 100 in Rafah, prompting international condemnation and U.S. calls for restraint, yet Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed plans for expanded ground maneuvers absent a hostage deal. Qatar-mediated negotiations collapsed last week over disagreements on aid and withdrawal timelines. Traders weigh this against historical patterns of sporadic escalations, with upcoming UN Security Council sessions and potential ICC warrants possibly influencing escalation risks. Current odds reflect crowd wisdom on near-term strikes amid unresolved tensions.",
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