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Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Ticker
israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31
Volume
2.4M
24h volume
15.2K
1w volume
528.5K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
14.5K
Liquidity CLOB
14.5K
Start
Oct 9, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2025
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Oct 9, 2025
Event ID
57088
Slug
israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-phase-ii-by-october-31
Markets
7
Raw event data
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}- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?Vol 262.4KLiq 5.8KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?Vol 512.6KLiq 8.7KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?Vol 717.6KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by November 30?Vol 373.2KLiq —End Nov 30, 2025Closed
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Vol 363.9KLiq —End Oct 31, 2025Closed
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?Vol 202.3KLiq —End Oct 31, 2025Closed
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by February 28?Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book