Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Name: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Start: 2026-03-03T00:43:26.919457Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Volume
315.3K
24h volume
6.0K
1w volume
69.3K
Open interest
77.5K
Liquidity
39.9K
Liquidity CLOB
39.9K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
242420
Slug
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Markets
Tags
Iran Israel Geopolitics Iran Ceasefire Lebanon
Raw event data
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