
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31." For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
military-action-against-iran-ends-on
Volume
2.5M
24h volume
144.0K
1w volume
2.5M
Open interest
0
Liquidity
347.1K
Liquidity CLOB
347.1K
Start
Mar 11, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 11, 2026
Event ID
258891
Slug
military-action-against-iran-ends-on
Markets
22
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"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-11T23:32:08.759086Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}