Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over__ in February?

Name: Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over__ in February?
Start: 2026-02-04T18:09:37.002712Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on XYZ or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Ticker

odds-of-khamenei-out-by-march-31-over-in-february

Volume

563.3K

1w volume

405.2K

Open interest

Liquidity

—

Start

Feb 4, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Closed

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 4, 2026

Event ID

198426

Slug

odds-of-khamenei-out-by-march-31-over-in-february

Markets

Tags

Politics Iran Middle East Trump Geopolitics Derivatives Khamenei

Raw event data

{
  "id": "198426",
  "ticker": "odds-of-khamenei-out-by-march-31-over-in-february",
  "slug": "odds-of-khamenei-out-by-march-31-over-in-february",
  "title": "Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over__ in February?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.\n\nThe resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on XYZ or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.\n\nNote: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-02-04T18:09:37.002712Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-02-04T18:09:37.002703Z",
  "endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": true,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "volume": 563273.59088,
  "openInterest": 0,
  "createdAt": "2026-02-04T14:57:55.252112Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-02-20T00:27:42.987629Z",
  "volume1wk": 405233.12829,
  "volume1mo": 525260.7267280001,
  "volume1yr": 525260.7267280001,
  "parentEventId": 102773,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 21,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1333675",
      "question": "Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?",
      "conditionId": "0x13aaab458476fbf7f89d3d6b1c2671e9a9f2462e8472e00aca3589f0a06a9f8e",
      "slug": "odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-20-in-february-158",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2026-02-04T18:08:27.849364Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.\n\nThe resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-20-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.\n\nNote: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
      "volume": "270038.415652",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-04T15:01:20.621082Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-19T16:25:28.435612Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-02-18 13:35:38+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": ">20%",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x37dc0b8ceadca9094ad6a5218f2dc28a881e3dcc1ace85919c368c1e50816088",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-02-18T13:35:38Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 270038.415652,
      "endDateIso": "2026-02-28",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-04",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume1wk": 165617.05715200002,
      "volume1mo": 270038.41565200017,
      "volume1yr": 270038.41565200017,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"77387432645615452813670268882174223536962232848677836345976480268545807233009\", \"78548420354977389417799653068488139239295140051069339667743689939201566262670\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume1wkClob": 165617.05715200002,
      "volume1moClob": 270038.41565200017,
      "volume1yrClob": 270038.41565200017,
      "volumeClob": 270038.415652,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-04T18:07:21Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.7845,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.5745,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.999,
      "bestBid": 0.999,
      "bestAsk": 1,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-04T18:06:07.951712Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1333605",
      "question": "Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 15% in February?",
      "conditionId": "0x74bf813718fd9b48e4e94987b008e6772c935fc2594efdad79a76a2bd365e907",
      "slug": "odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-15-in-february-251",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "0",
      "startDate": "2026-02-04T18:08:27.596061Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.\n\nThe resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-15-in-february or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.\n\nNote: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
      "volume": "38012.864152",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-04T14:57:56.594958Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:57:34.551187Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-02-04 22:53:15+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": ">15%",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x956f0d00b6dd6e5ed8c0f7c005384899fd9ab9a958b9e49157a799fb5bc393fd",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-02-04T22:53:15Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 38012.864152,
      "liquidityNum": 0,
      "endDateIso": "2026-02-28",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-04",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"89403408286380427207364848951440555892940852144773878218952025895751828341806\", \"33454785166854591239440717203444550571460504282260070907202535440507745237295\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volumeClob": 38012.864152,
      "liquidityAmm": 0,
      "liquidityClob": 0,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-04T18:07:21Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.999,
      "bestBid": 0.999,
      "bestAsk": 1,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-04T18:06:07.953351Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1336080",
      "question": "Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?",
      "conditionId": "0x053565fab1ad53e2034a709d46ab2bb4b5af01b5446d20dea3cfe0e64c74c3f5",
      "slug": "odds-of-khamenei-being-out-as-supreme-leader-by-march-31-over-25-in-february",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2026-02-06T00:21:21.225417Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025-VNDMf5RqFLwB.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA tie in the number of minutes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nIf the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.\n\nThe resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31-over-25 or through the “Get Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.\n\nNote: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
      "volume": "255222.311076",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-04T21:31:27.255697Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-02-20T00:27:27.095609Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-02-18 19:22:04+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": ">25%",
      "groupItemThreshold": "2",
      "questionID": "0xa3875503e47f0cc897ab2e66855cfa447e29701fe8429e485ff26eeff760b726",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-02-18T19:22:04Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 255222.311076,
      "endDateIso": "2026-02-28",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-06",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume1wk": 239616.07113800003,
      "volume1mo": 255222.3110759999,
      "volume1yr": 255222.3110759999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"31061980009388800988112801942846857818860360829267661962512131884864859720248\", \"24822779062749100344845510938489630762739810520093743804590535640882396332963\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume1wkClob": 239616.07113800003,
      "volume1moClob": 255222.3110759999,
      "volume1yrClob": 255222.3110759999,
      "volumeClob": 255222.311076,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-06T00:20:15Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 20,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.8495,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.7645,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.999,
      "bestBid": 0.999,
      "bestAsk": 1,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-06T00:17:34.286508Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100418",
      "label": "Derivatives",
      "slug": "derivatives",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-09-05T16:22:43.47173Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:04.37172Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102304",
      "label": "Khamenei",
      "slug": "khamenei",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-23T18:41:15.452041Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:01.871485Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "closedTime": "2026-02-18T19:22:04Z",
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "automaticallyResolved": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "estimateValue": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false
}

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?
Vol 270.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?
Vol 255.2KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 15% in February?
Vol 38.0KLiq 0End Feb 28, 2026Closed