
Prediction market · Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by TISZA in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For parties that contest some seats jointly with another party, including as part of a joint national party list, the number of seats won by the specified party will be determined based on a consensus of credible reporting. If necessary, official information identifying the party affiliation of specific elected candidates, including candidate registration records, parliamentary party member lists, and similar official sources, will also be used. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Ticker
of-seats-won-by-tisza-in-hungary-parliamentary-election
Volume
395.5K
24h volume
168.1K
1w volume
207.3K
Open interest
20.9K
Liquidity
88.3K
Liquidity CLOB
88.3K
Start
Mar 13, 2026
End
Apr 12, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 13, 2026
Event ID
263567
Slug
of-seats-won-by-tisza-in-hungary-parliamentary-election
Markets
8
Tags
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race for TISZA seats in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, with 130+ (25.5%) and 120-129 (24.5%) nearly tied amid conflicting polls. Independent surveys like Medián's March 17-20 poll (published March 25) show TISZA widening its lead to 23 points (58%-35%) among decided voters, fueled by economic stagnation and high expected turnout near 89%, boosting challenger momentum under Péter Magyar. However, government-aligned polls such as Nézőpont's late March data indicate Fidesz ahead, leveraging rural strongholds and the majoritarian electoral system—106 single-member districts plus 93 proportional seats—that favors incumbents. Divergent polling, historical turnout volatility, and final campaign pushes could separate outcomes, potentially denying TISZA a majority (100 seats) or supermajority (133).",
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