Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

Name: Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
Start: 2026-01-07T21:29:19.718996Z
End: 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Ticker
russia-parliamentary-election-winner
Volume
322.9K
24h volume
68.7K
1w volume
102.0K
Open interest
Liquidity
139.6K
Liquidity CLOB
139.6K
Start
Jan 7, 2026
End
Sep 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 7, 2026
Event ID
149565
Slug
russia-parliamentary-election-winner
Markets
Tags
putin russia World Elections World Elections Global Elections Politics
Raw event data
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  "slug": "russia-parliamentary-election-winner",
  "title": "Russia Parliamentary Election Winner",
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  "creationDate": "2026-01-07T21:29:19.718939Z",
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      "question": "Will Other win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
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      "slug": "will-other-win-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election",
      "endDate": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "0",
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      "description": "Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.\n\nIf the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.\n\nNote: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.",
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    "context_description": "United Russia's 95.6% trader consensus for the Russia parliamentary election winner reflects its entrenched incumbency as the State Duma's dominant force, having secured a supermajority of 324 out of 450 seats in the 2021 vote under President Putin's backing and with opposition figures largely barred over anti-war stances. Recent VCIOM and FOM polls confirm ER's lead at 52-58% nationally, reinforced by state media control and limited competition ahead of the September 2026 contest. Scenarios challenging this include acute economic fallout from Ukraine sanctions sparking unrest or elite factionalism eroding turnout discipline, though institutional levers render such shifts low-probability per market pricing.",
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