
Prediction market · Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Ticker
scotland-parliamentary-election-winner
Volume
492.0K
24h volume
241.0K
1w volume
482.0K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
73.5K
Liquidity CLOB
73.5K
Start
Dec 13, 2025
End
May 7, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 13, 2025
Event ID
103717
Slug
scotland-parliamentary-election-winner
Markets
24
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"context_description": "Scottish National Party's commanding 90.6% implied probability on Polymarket stems from its consistent lead in recent opinion polls and constituency seat projections for the 2026 Holyrood election, bolstered by historical dominance in Scotland's proportional system despite the 2024 UK general election drubbing. Traders weigh SNP's edge under First Minister John Swinney against fragmented opposition, with Labour trailing in multi-party forecasts from firms like Find Out Now and Survation. Key drivers include stagnant independence momentum redirecting focus to domestic issues like NHS waiting times and housing. Realistic challenges encompass a Labour surge led by Anas Sarwar, SNP scandals eroding trust, or tactical voting boosting Liberal Democrats or Conservatives in key seats ahead of the May 7, 2026, vote.",
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