
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
Volume
300.4K
24h volume
39.1K
1w volume
291.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
162.1K
Liquidity CLOB
162.1K
Start
Mar 11, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 11, 2026
Event ID
261273
Slug
trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trump's smooth inauguration on January 20, 2025, and subsequent policy rollouts, including executive orders on immigration and energy, underpin the 93.5% implied probability that he remains president through June 30. Republican majorities in Congress have fast-tracked most cabinet confirmations, diminishing impeachment risks, while no credible 25th Amendment invocations or health concerns have emerged. Recent news highlights stable White House operations amid economic optimism from early tariffs and tax cut signals, with no scandals or legal rulings threatening removal. Traders' consensus reflects historical rarity of early-term ousters and absence of catalysts like bipartisan revolt, though upcoming debt ceiling talks could introduce volatility.",
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