
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (March 13 - March 15) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Ticker
undertone-opening-weekend-box-office
Volume
293.7K
24h volume
59.2K
1w volume
292.7K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
17.0K
Liquidity CLOB
17.0K
Start
Mar 9, 2026
End
Mar 16, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 9, 2026
Resolution source
https://www.the-numbers.com/
Event ID
256943
Slug
undertone-opening-weekend-box-office
Markets
5
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"context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors an 8-9 million opening weekend for Undertone, with 63.2% implied probability, driven by solid pre-sale tracking in urban markets and positive buzz from early screenings highlighting its tense psychological thriller elements. The 9-10 million band at 36.1% reflects optimism from star power and genre appeal amid light competition, though analysts note potential caps from mixed test scores and streaming alternatives. Recent developments include a viral final trailer boosting social metrics 20% week-over-week and Thursday previews projected at 1.2-1.5 million, aligning with comps like recent mid-budget horrors (e.g., similar to Smile's adjusted figures). Unpredictable walk-ups could shift odds, but current sentiment underscores cautious enthusiasm for a $8-10M debut.",
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