
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31
Volume
492.8K
24h volume
2.8K
1w volume
18.1K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
8.4K
Liquidity CLOB
8.4K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193911
Slug
us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31
Markets
2
{
"id": "193911",
"ticker": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31",
"slug": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31",
"title": "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. \n\nOnly direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín \"El Chapo\" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:10.660088Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-31T00:25:10.660085Z",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 8388.7102,
"volume": 492752.401264,
"openInterest": 0,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:45:57.703303Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T02:51:59.488784Z",
"competitive": 0.9999000099990001,
"volume24hr": 2830.892421,
"volume1wk": 18079.259279,
"volume1mo": 492752.40126399987,
"volume1yr": 492752.40126399987,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 8388.7102,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1301522",
"question": "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0xbff854d97ac4e37be63672f50e5e08b8ee7dc3e81b0e06dfe18231aab06b3c67",
"slug": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "7485.6646",
"startDate": "2026-01-31T00:23:27.83Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. \n\nOnly direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín \"El Chapo\" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.12\", \"0.88\"]",
"volume": "492542.751751",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:46:00.108239Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T02:50:59.181179Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xd6c04c10573a3f890da673c431006b1a440f69b1a616d42ff3f879da60243cd8",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 492542.751751,
"liquidityNum": 7485.6646,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 2830.892421,
"volume1wk": 17869.609766,
"volume1mo": 492542.7517509999,
"volume1yr": 492542.7517509999,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"40688752571367984562094189705956819976283796447723243231995074339008425670892\", \"68800440485479513724438013945607151077670501783955021074751998388722951568905\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 2830.892421,
"volume1wkClob": 17869.609766,
"volume1moClob": 492542.7517509999,
"volume1yrClob": 492542.7517509999,
"volumeClob": 492542.751751,
"liquidityClob": 7485.6646,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:22:22Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8738203425375743,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "68398",
"conditionId": "0xbff854d97ac4e37be63672f50e5e08b8ee7dc3e81b0e06dfe18231aab06b3c67",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-02-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.05,
"lastTradePrice": 0.12,
"bestBid": 0.11,
"bestAsk": 0.13,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-31T00:21:08.636903Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1367007",
"question": "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?",
"conditionId": "0xe43f857dfb0198020e4c4c05e1704ae961719d0f472bdd66b2661a0a0a519c36",
"slug": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-june-30",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "903.0456",
"startDate": "2026-02-12T19:40:20.398481Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may-pfFE7L1pkdET.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nU.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. \n\nOnly direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín \"El Chapo\" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.49\", \"0.51\"]",
"volume": "209.649513",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-11T19:45:10.670228Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T02:50:54.449974Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "June 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0x3c618a990c9c48b2b248c29c1f3499abb349d515ab7645cf21ca0dff005c8f0b",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 209.649513,
"liquidityNum": 903.0456,
"endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-12",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume1wk": 209.649513,
"volume1mo": 209.649513,
"volume1yr": 209.649513,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"104670482580508957710169110674758095664796430666591779353969904691172237111486\", \"63484481107647122168088064516182388887132159693102897724855474391526233036103\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume1wkClob": 209.649513,
"volume1moClob": 209.649513,
"volume1yrClob": 209.649513,
"volumeClob": 209.649513,
"liquidityClob": 903.0456,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-12T19:39:15Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9999000099990001,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.2,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.06,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.01,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.19,
"lastTradePrice": 0.35,
"bestBid": 0.39,
"bestAsk": 0.59,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-12T19:38:00.523843Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "11006",
"ticker": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico",
"slug": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico",
"title": "U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "monthly",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-01-30T22:44:30.154746Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-22T02:52:07.116675Z",
"volume24hr": 2830.892421,
"volume": 492752.401264,
"liquidity": 8388.7102,
"commentCount": 1614,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:04:41.800728Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "956",
"label": "mexico",
"slug": "mexico",
"publishedAt": "2024-02-06 03:18:46.037+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-06T03:18:46.05Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:23:51.08652Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "246",
"label": "Venezuela",
"slug": "venezuela",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:43:20.356Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:16:40.556019Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:24:21.058056Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:05:42.017208Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-02-06T20:10:12.806715Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}