
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Ticker
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Volume
323.4K
24h volume
27.6K
1w volume
178.3K
Open interest
157.7K
Liquidity
19.9K
Liquidity CLOB
19.9K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193920
Slug
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for a full U.S. evacuation of the Baghdad embassy by near-term deadlines, driven by persistent but contained Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria. Recent developments include over 170 such assaults since October 2023 amid Israel-Hamas tensions, prompting U.S. airstrikes on Kata'ib Hezbollah facilities in July 2024, yet no State Department order for complete diplomatic withdrawal—only prior voluntary departures for nonessential personnel. Embassy operations continue under heightened security, with Iraq's government cracking down on militias. Key upcoming catalysts: potential Iranian responses to Israeli actions or Iraqi parliamentary votes on U.S. troop presence, which could shift risk assessments.",
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