US next strikes Iran on...?

Name: US next strikes Iran on...?
Start: 2026-01-27T16:57:09.009348Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

us-next-strikes-iran-on-843

Volume

36.1M

24h volume

2.2M

1w volume

25.9M

Open interest

Liquidity

1.1M

Liquidity CLOB

1.1M

Start

Jan 27, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 27, 2026

Event ID

189845

Slug

us-next-strikes-iran-on-843

Markets

Tags

Israel Iran World Middle East Geopolitics Politics

Raw event data

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Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Vol 1.2MLiq 80.6KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 766.6KLiq 45.2KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 750.5KLiq 60.4KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.1MLiq 61.2KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 933.9KLiq 56.7KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 841.3KLiq 74.6KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 864.9KLiq 81.0KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.5MLiq 171.8KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 890.8KLiq 89.9KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 809.2KLiq 102.8KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.9MLiq 117.9KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.4MLiq 109.8KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 3.5MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 2.8MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 2.6MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 2.6MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.5MLiq 0End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.2MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.2MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 1.1MLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 999.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 920.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 891.6KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 889.9KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 648.8KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 577.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 501.9KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 489.9KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?
Vol 464.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?
Vol 264.6KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed

Overview

Ticker

us-next-strikes-iran-on-843

Volume

36.1M

24h volume

2.2M

1w volume

25.9M

Open interest

Liquidity

1.1M

Liquidity CLOB

1.1M

Start

Jan 27, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 27, 2026

Event ID

189845

Slug

us-next-strikes-iran-on-843

Markets

Raw event data

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