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U.S. nuclear test by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
us-nuclear-test-by
Volume
389.4K
24h volume
1
1w volume
23.4K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
7.9K
Liquidity CLOB
7.9K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73921
Slug
us-nuclear-test-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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}- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?Vol 95.4KLiq 7.9KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?Vol 193.2KLiq —Closed
- Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?Vol 100.9KLiq —Closed