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US x Russia military clash by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
us-x-russia-military-clash-by
Volume
569.5K
24h volume
30
1w volume
36.2K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
22.5K
Liquidity CLOB
22.5K
Start
May 28, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
May 28, 2025
Event ID
25410
Slug
us-x-russia-military-clash-by
Markets
4
Raw event data
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}- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Vol 3.5KLiq 4.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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