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U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify. Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control. The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ticker
us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31
Volume
577.0K
24h volume
1
1w volume
61.1K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
4.1K
Liquidity CLOB
4.1K
Start
Aug 14, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Aug 14, 2025
Event ID
37568
Slug
us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31
Markets
3
Raw event data
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}- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Vol 19.6KLiq 4.1KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?Vol 493.9KLiq —End Dec 31, 2025Closed
- U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?Vol 63.5KLiq —End Feb 4, 2026Closed