US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Name: US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
Start: 2026-01-08T23:01:09.464122Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

usisrael-strikes-iran-by

Volume

15.3M

24h volume

254.6K

1w volume

7.5M

Open interest

Liquidity

228.2K

Liquidity CLOB

228.2K

Start

Jan 8, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 8, 2026

Event ID

151953

Slug

usisrael-strikes-iran-by

Markets

Tags

Iran Middle East World Israel Geopolitics Politics

Raw event data

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Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
Vol 338.3KLiq 48.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Vol 449.9KLiq 50.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Vol 870.5KLiq 38.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Vol 2.5MLiq 90.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Vol 6.5MLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Vol 2.8MLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
Vol 837.3KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?
Vol 434.7KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?
Vol 343.6KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?
Vol 126.0KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?
Vol 101.7KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 16, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 18, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 20, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 22, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 30, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 17, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 19, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 21, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 23, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 29, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026Closed
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 14, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 13, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 15, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book

Overview

Ticker

usisrael-strikes-iran-by

Volume

15.3M

24h volume

254.6K

1w volume

7.5M

Open interest

Liquidity

228.2K

Liquidity CLOB

228.2K

Start

Jan 8, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 8, 2026

Event ID

151953

Slug

usisrael-strikes-iran-by

Markets

Raw event data

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      "question": "Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?",
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