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Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
usisrael-strikes-iran-on
Volume
838.3K
24h volume
797.0K
1w volume
797.0K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
137.0K
Liquidity CLOB
137.0K
Start
Feb 28, 2026
End
Mar 10, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 28, 2026
Event ID
236827
Slug
usisrael-strikes-iran-on
Markets
10
Raw event data
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}- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Vol 621.7KLiq 76.7KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Vol 109.4KLiq 17.3KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
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- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Vol 6.7KLiq 7.0KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
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- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Vol 4.5KLiq 3.0KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Vol 2.4KLiq 1.3KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Vol 2.1KLiq 4.4KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Vol 3.5KLiq 1.6KEnd Mar 10, 2026OpenOrder book