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What will Trump say in March?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Ticker

what-will-trump-say-in-march

Volume

354.2K

24h volume

178.9K

1w volume

245.4K

Open interest

78.7K

Liquidity

26.0K

Liquidity CLOB

26.0K

Start

Feb 26, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Feb 26, 2026

Event ID

233066

Slug

what-will-trump-say-in-march

Markets

32

Tags

Mentions Trump Politics

Raw event data

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  "slug": "what-will-trump-say-in-march",
  "title": "What will Trump say in March?",
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  "startDate": "2026-02-26T23:37:35.162344Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-02-26T23:37:35.162318Z",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Aliens are Real\" in March?",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Banana Republic\" in March?",
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      "question": "Will Trump say \"Midnight Hammer\" in March?",
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      "id": "1450147",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Debate\" in March?",
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      "id": "1450149",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Charlie Kirk\" in March?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nAI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "1648.5061660000003",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-26T20:40:49.485196Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-01T13:54:16.737187Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-04-01 08:24:03+00",
      "new": false,
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      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
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      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "Sudan",
      "groupItemThreshold": "27",
      "questionID": "0xfc1affca7ea59cffe27d6ac7b138c5040699a091d11d5e0fdd7fde105e48062d",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-04-01T08:24:03Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 1648.5061660000003,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-26",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 888.17,
      "volume1wk": 1510.23414,
      "volume1mo": 1648.506166,
      "volume1yr": 1648.506166,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"34912729335640507393104035059188091508324907913932156576333125593632956072609\", \"31807621495397119502437606661383125727191157508557852798380331863727829785597\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 888.17,
      "volume1wkClob": 1510.23414,
      "volume1moClob": 1648.506166,
      "volume1yrClob": 1648.506166,
      "volumeClob": 1648.5061660000003,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-26T23:33:08Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.008,
      "bestAsk": 0.001,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-26T23:28:47.359648Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
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      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1450161",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Escalator\" in March?",
      "conditionId": "0x4856f0d097af8f10b2c2b88a330e09b3fffb00dc8b564af8edf9038a2614b4cb",
      "slug": "will-trump-say-escalator-in-march",
      "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2026-02-26T23:34:47.468074Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-in-february-oikeEPQ5muGN.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-in-february-oikeEPQ5muGN.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nAI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"1\", \"0\"]",
      "volume": "1156.798846",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-26T20:40:50.646028Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-10T23:37:43.810063Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-03-10 00:50:09+00",
      "new": false,
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      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "Escalator",
      "groupItemThreshold": "29",
      "questionID": "0xd3d595f480560f8fcffa8e738e2840611e93acb1529a816f1bca2cec0418222c",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-03-10T00:50:09Z",
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      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 1156.798846,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-26",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
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      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volumeClob": 1156.798846,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-26T23:33:42Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.99,
      "bestBid": 0.999,
      "bestAsk": 1,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-26T23:28:43.309328Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1450163",
      "question": "Will Trump say \"Third term\" in March?",
      "conditionId": "0xd50c434c6dad84b1a031daeb257303530cde59ae6c4414cfada1d3869c760162",
      "slug": "will-trump-say-third-term-in-march",
      "endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "25832.18602",
      "startDate": "2026-02-26T23:34:53.153427Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-in-february-oikeEPQ5muGN.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-will-trump-say-in-february-oikeEPQ5muGN.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nPlural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.\n\nInstances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for \"joy,\" however \"killjoy\" is a compounding of the words \"kill\" and \"joy\").\n\nIf this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).\n\nAI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\nA ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.\n\nWritten usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.1495\", \"0.8505\"]",
      "volume": "169375.4678389999",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-02-26T20:40:51.736691Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-01T13:53:33.441208Z",
      "new": false,
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      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "Third term",
      "groupItemThreshold": "31",
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      "enableOrderBook": true,
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      "umaResolutionStatus": "disputed",
      "volumeNum": 169375.4678389999,
      "liquidityNum": 25832.18602,
      "endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-02-26",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
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      "volume1yr": 169375.46783900016,
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      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 144515.28982400004,
      "volume1wkClob": 153180.74013900003,
      "volume1moClob": 169357.58700100015,
      "volume1yrClob": 169375.46783900016,
      "volumeClob": 169375.4678389999,
      "liquidityClob": 25832.18602,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-26T23:33:46Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.890590708778842,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "99014",
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      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
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      "spread": 0.035,
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      "bestAsk": 0.167,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
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      "showGmpSeries": false,
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      "manualActivation": false,
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      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\", \"disputed\", \"proposed\", \"disputed\"]",
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  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100343",
      "label": "Mentions",
      "slug": "mention-markets",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-08-16T02:29:11.548984Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.778143Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
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      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
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      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
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  "startTime": "2026-03-31T15:00:00Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "With March 2026 concluded, Polymarket traders price near-certain \"No\" resolutions (<1% YES implied probability) across most outcomes in this verbal mentions market, reflecting Donald Trump's public speeches and press conferences largely avoiding signature phrases like \"N Word,\" \"Low Energy,\" \"Little Rocket Man,\" or \"Aliens are Real.\" The highest YES odds (~13%) attach to \"Third term\" following debate over a partial utterance in his March 9 Florida speech, where Trump said \"term second term\" before trailing off, with UMA oracle review pending on whether it qualifies. Other monitored events included March 27 Future Investment Initiative remarks, March 28 farmers address, and March 31 executive order signing on mail-in voting limits alongside Oval Office comments signaling Iran war wind-down, but none triggered clear hits amid strict verbal criteria excluding written posts.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-01T13:49:56.267Z"
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}

Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" in March?
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Vol 169.4KLiq 25.8KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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Vol 58.3KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 13.2KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 12.5KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 7.8KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 6.5KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 6.4KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Truth Social" in March?
Vol 6.4KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
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Vol 3.8KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March?
Vol 3.2KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Kanye" or "Taylor Swift" in March?
Vol 3.2KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Judy Shelton" in March?
Vol 2.9KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Liberation Day" in March?
Vol 2.4KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Big Fat Cat" in March?
Vol 2.2KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "UFC Fight" in March?
Vol 2.2KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Capital of the World" in March?
Vol 1.8KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Banana Republic" in March?
Vol 1.8KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Sudan" in March?
Vol 1.6KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Erika Kirk" in March?
Vol 1.0KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "War On Fraud" in March?
Vol 753Liq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
Will Trump say "Secret Word" in March?
Vol 499Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026Closed