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© 2026 Market Ahead

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. For example: If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”. If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No". If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Ticker

which-coalition-will-form-the-next-dutch-government

Volume

64.2M

24h volume

3.4M

1w volume

27.7M

Open interest

0

Liquidity

2.4M

Liquidity CLOB

2.4M

Start

Oct 15, 2025

End

Oct 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Oct 15, 2025

Event ID

59404

Slug

which-coalition-will-form-the-next-dutch-government

Markets

34

Tags

Politics World Elections Netherlands Global Elections Dutch Election

Raw event data

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Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
Vol 1.1MLiq 8.0KOpenOrder book
archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?
Vol 522Liq 391OpenOrder book
archived Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA + D66?
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archived Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66 + GL/PvdA?
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Will there be no coalition by October 31?
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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + D66?
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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66?
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Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA?
Vol 4.1MLiq 75.1KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD?
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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA?
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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + JA21?
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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21?
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Vol 1.5MLiq 105.3KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + CDA?
Vol 1.3MLiq 100.0KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA?
Vol 1.3MLiq 111.0KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + D66?
Vol 1.3MLiq 85.0KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?
Vol 1.2MLiq 103.7KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + CDA?
Vol 1.2MLiq 90.8KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?
Vol 1.2MLiq 66.6KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?
Vol 1.1MLiq 106.4KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66?
Vol 1.1MLiq 90.7KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be another combination?
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Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?
Vol 987.7KLiq 70.9KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21?
Vol 913.7KLiq 64.4KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?
Vol 841.3KLiq 61.0KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66?
Vol 617.2KLiq 108.0KOpenOrder book
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + JA21?
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