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Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ticker
which-company-has-the-2-ai-model-end-of-march-style-control-on
Volume
306.5K
24h volume
8.8K
1w volume
66.5K
Open interest
21.4K
Liquidity
163.4K
Liquidity CLOB
163.4K
Start
Dec 2, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 2, 2025
Event ID
95999
Slug
which-company-has-the-2-ai-model-end-of-march-style-control-on
Markets
23
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet commands 93.6% implied probability as the #2 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by end of March, driven by its current runner-up Elo score of around 1308—trailing only OpenAI's o1-preview—bolstered by superior reasoning and multimodal capabilities in recent evals. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's rapid iteration pace since the model's June launch, outpacing rivals like xAI's Grok-2 and Google's Gemini 1.5 in user-voted battles, amid a stable competitive landscape. Challenges could arise from OpenAI's next frontier model, xAI's anticipated Grok-3 by year-end, or Google's Gemini 2.0 upgrades, any of which might surge rankings if they demonstrate breakthrough style control and long-context handling before the deadline.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-03-23T10:43:27.130Z"
}
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