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Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Volume
452.8K
24h volume
343.1K
1w volume
452.8K
Open interest
77.1K
Liquidity
209.0K
Liquidity CLOB
209.0K
Start
Mar 23, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 23, 2026
Event ID
300427
Slug
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Markets
13
Tags
Raw event data
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"context_description": "The ongoing US-Israel air campaign against Iran, launched February 28, 2026, with strikes on nuclear sites, missile production facilities, and leadership targets, dominates trader assessments now in its fifth week as of late March. Iranian retaliation has included attacks wounding US troops at a Saudi base and Houthi missile launches toward Israel, prompting heightened US force deployments amid Tehran's warnings of fiery resistance to any ground invasion. Diplomatic signals emerged March 29 with Pakistan offering to host US-Iran talks after consultations involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, while Iran rejected a US 15-point peace proposal. No other nations have joined direct military action, though UK bases support operations; escalation risks or negotiation breakthroughs could spur involvement before April 30 resolution.",
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}- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Vol 65.6KLiq 19.0KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Vol 36.5KLiq 40.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?Vol 724Liq 10.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?Vol 1.2KLiq 12.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?Vol 915Liq 11.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?Vol 426Liq 15.4KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?Vol 5.1KLiq 11.0KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will France strike Iran by April 30?Vol 148.4KLiq 23.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?Vol 14.9KLiq 14.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?Vol 319Liq 8.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will UK strike Iran by April 30?Vol 103.1KLiq 22.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?Vol 75.6KLiq 19.2KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Canada strike Iran by April 30?Vol —Liq 5.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book