Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?

Name: Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Start: 2026-03-19T18:14:19.410016Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ticker

will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by

Volume

322.7K

24h volume

67.7K

1w volume

224.3K

Open interest

128.5K

Liquidity

76.1K

Liquidity CLOB

76.1K

Start

Mar 19, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 19, 2026

Event ID

283557

Slug

will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by

Markets

Tags

Geopolitics Middle East Iran Israel x Iran Military Strikes Regional Spillover U.S. x Iran

Raw event data

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      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
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    {
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      "label": "Middle East",
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      "slug": "iran",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
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    {
      "id": "104039",
      "label": "U.S. x Iran",
      "slug": "trump-iran",
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      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:28:43.535987Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "US and Israeli forces initiated a large-scale military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, launching nearly 900 strikes on missiles, air defenses, nuclear sites, and infrastructure, with operations continuing into early April including recent explosions in Isfahan and Tehran. Bahrain marked the first Persian Gulf state involvement by firing US-supplied HIMARS missiles at Iran in mid-March, amid reports of strikes from Kuwaiti bases and possible Pakistani airspace use. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, prompting UN and EU calls for de-escalation and accountability. Trump has threatened expanded targets like power plants, while indirect US-Iran talks signal potential ceasefire negotiations that could limit further escalation by additional countries.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-03T08:34:43.966Z"
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