
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Volume
126.8K
24h volume
18.4K
1w volume
81.4K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
42.3K
Liquidity CLOB
42.3K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73059
Slug
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Markets
2
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