Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Name: Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
Start: 2026-02-26T21:15:13.278279Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-israel-strike-gaza-on-339
Volume
193.0K
24h volume
30.6K
1w volume
192.9K
Open interest
Liquidity
79.9K
Liquidity CLOB
79.9K
Start
Feb 26, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 26, 2026
Event ID
230495
Slug
will-israel-strike-gaza-on-339
Markets
Tags
Gaza World Politics Daily Strikes hamas Middle East palestine Geopolitics Israel
Raw event data
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