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Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between market creation and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-israel-strike-greater-beirut-by-319
Volume
372.3K
24h volume
31.0K
1w volume
80.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
40.8K
Liquidity CLOB
40.8K
Start
Jan 5, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 5, 2026
Event ID
145944
Slug
will-israel-strike-greater-beirut-by-319
Markets
2
Raw event data
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}- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?Vol 312.0KLiq 41.3KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?Vol 60.4KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed