Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Name: Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
Start: 2026-02-26T21:15:10.944313Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-363
Volume
600.9K
24h volume
402.4K
1w volume
427.1K
Open interest
Liquidity
93.7K
Liquidity CLOB
93.7K
Start
Feb 26, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 26, 2026
Event ID
230480
Slug
will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-363
Markets
Tags
Hezbollah Politics Lebanon Middle East World Israel Gaza Geopolitics Daily Strikes
Raw event data
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      "question": "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 15, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 17, 2026?",
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Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?
Vol 51.0KLiq 33.4KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?
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Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?
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Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?
Vol 904Liq 1.0KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?
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Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?
Vol 798Liq 1.9KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?
Vol 682Liq 2.2KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?
Vol 513.0KLiq 35.4KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 10, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 12, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 14, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 16, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 18, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 22, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 30, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 11, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 13, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 15, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 17, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 19, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 21, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 23, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 29, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 31, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book