Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Name: Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
Start: 2026-01-27T16:49:32.320741Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ticker

will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-431

Volume

2.7M

24h volume

73.4K

1w volume

2.7M

Open interest

Liquidity

12.8K

Liquidity CLOB

12.8K

Start

Jan 27, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 27, 2026

Event ID

190420

Slug

will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-431

Markets

Tags

Politics World Lebanon Geopolitics Middle East Israel Gaza Hezbollah Daily Strikes

Raw event data

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Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
Vol 193.7KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?
Vol 144.6KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?
Vol 119.2KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?
Vol 118.4KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?
Vol 89.6KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?
Vol 81.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?
Vol 75.9KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?
Vol 55.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?
Vol 25.1KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?
Vol 9.6KLiq 920End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?
Vol 13.8KLiq 1.3KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?
Vol 22.0KLiq 1.0KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?
Vol 27.6KLiq 1.2KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?
Vol 73.1KLiq 8.4KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?
Vol 509.4KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
Vol 254.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?
Vol 241.8KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?
Vol 147.4KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?
Vol 133.7KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?
Vol 121.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?
Vol 115.8KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?
Vol 85.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?
Vol 66.5KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book

Overview

Ticker

will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-431

Volume

2.7M

24h volume

73.4K

1w volume

2.7M

Open interest

Liquidity

12.8K

Liquidity CLOB

12.8K

Start

Jan 27, 2026

End

Feb 28, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 27, 2026

Event ID

190420

Slug

will-israel-strike-lebanon-on-431

Markets

Raw event data

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