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Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify. Once Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: 1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. 2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.
Ticker
will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by
Volume
265.2K
24h volume
314
1w volume
8.8K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
99.8K
Liquidity CLOB
99.8K
Start
Jan 5, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 5, 2026
Event ID
139550
Slug
will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by
Markets
2
Raw event data
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}- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?Vol 35.5KLiq 14.0KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?Vol 229.7KLiq 85.0KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book