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Will Russia enter Bilytske by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.4055° N, 37.1871° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Bilytske is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
will-russia-enter-bilytske-by-february-28
Volume
262.5K
24h volume
19.5K
1w volume
148.9K
Open interest
0
Liquidity
13.7K
Liquidity CLOB
13.7K
Start
Jan 29, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 29, 2026
Event ID
191870
Slug
will-russia-enter-bilytske-by-february-28
Markets
2
Raw event data
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}- Will Russia enter Bilytske by March 31?Vol 12.4KLiq 8.9KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?Vol 256.5KLiq 5.8KEnd Feb 28, 2026OpenOrder book